Wednesday, June 28, 2017

How to make multibagger returns

When the market has been going up in the recent past and many stocks hit their all time highs, its definitely time to be cautious. As an investor said "The best of times always seed the worst of times in the life of every investor. Life turns 360 degrees when you least expect. Something every investor must remember as things seem to only get better with every passing day". This can’t be truer than now. Companies that are making profits are getting crazy valuations and investors are in a hurry to buy at any premium even while many of them were languishing at lower prices only a few years ago. 

Ace investors who believe in making multiples of returns, know this is not a buyers’ market and prefer to look at businesses which are out of favour, making losses but have prospects of turning around. Some believe that luck is imminent to finding multibagger stocks.  Still we can put some method to the madness.

First the stock must be quoting at its lowest in its recent history, which could happen only when the business or the sector is in negative momentum or sentiment like what the pharma and IT sectors are today. Or if the company has huge debts and making losses but has strong management which can make it turnaround in the future. If you are catching a fancy stock chances are that it is already making highs and you might have missed entering at a right value. I know of an investor who invests when company is doing at its worst or near loss making and then he believes they will turnaround because they have a capable, trust worthy management and a ‘spark idea’ that will turn them turnaround.  This forms the basis for long-term high returns and multibaggers. 


Joseph Mazur in his book explains the difference between a coincidence (a meaningful conjunction of things without any apparent cause) and a fluke (an improbable outcome the cause of which is clear – such as a multibagger returns, where buying the stock is what makes the win possible)

1 comment:

Anju Shukla said...

Japan’s Nikkei 225 has gained 47 points, Hong Kong's Hang Seng has surged 243 points and China’s Shanghai Composite has added 10 points.capitalstars